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Blind to Collapse
There is a very good article on the fall of the Roman empire by Ugo Bardi (h/t Vox Dei). He applies system dynamics to explain the collapse. Let’s start from the beginning…with the people who were...
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Measuring Risk Objectively?
In order to manage the complexity of life and the accompanying uncertainties, we build models. Models by their very nature are reductions, that is, we throw out a certain amount of information. A...
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Model Building and Forecasting
As a life long skeptic of forecasting, (especially complex statistical models) I really enjoyed this article.
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